Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Some Thoughts on Deficiencies in our Understanding of Epidemics

I'm sitting here trying to think of good research ideas to focus on; the areas of interest to me are (1) Infectious Disease, but specifically areas of epidemiology related to those infections that cause massive morbidity and mortality over short periods of time. So, this covers what is typically called "Emerging" and "Re-Emerging" infections as well as agents typically considered agents of biowarfare/bioterrorism in addition to a few infections that we constantly risk the evolution of a repeated outbreak (such as pandemic influenza).

Given the areas of specific interest I have, I also like to consider the sorts of methodologies which I either (1) have some basic skill in, or (2) would very much like to learn much more about. Of course, as a physician, this includes the clinical acumen to some degree, but I find myself more drawn to an interest in information technology and computational technologies to solve old problems which we still struggle with.

So, then, what sorts of problems do we find that we still need to address? And what sorts of questions or problems could one solve that is likely to make a significant impact to the world at large?

Well, what I am feeling that I would like to learn much more about is the computational modeling and simulation of epidemics. For one, I wonder if our understanding of the basic modeling of epidemics is still insufficient. For this, I will need to learn much more about the current field and then try to identify areas which are still lacking.

In addition, I believe that in the past, we have not had sufficient technology to fully incorporate the multitude of factors (human, societal, environmental, microbiological, political, etc...) that come in to play. For this, of course I need to learn much more, but I think it is much safer to say that this is likely to be the case. There is much technology that is only in its infancy which is applicable to these problems, (i.e. better computational power, graphical information systems, etc.)

Well, just some thoughts; more of me putting "ink on paper" to form my thoughts.

More to come...

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